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Russia’s drastic move last December to raise its key rate to 17 percent to stop the ruble’s free fall was met with dismay by many. A year later, it’s won over admirers. The measure was seen as extreme, but looking back it helped stabilize the currency, financial markets, and turn things around. Even though Russia is still mired in a recession and growth probably won’t resume until 2017, there are now the first signs pointing to a recovery. A flexible ruble is helping offset the drop in oil prices, while inflation growth is slowly being tamed. Moody’s Investors Service in December increased its outlook on Russia.
Russia’s drastic move last December to raise its key rate to 17 percent to stop the ruble’s free fall was met with dismay by many. A year later, it’s won over admirers. The measure was seen as extreme, but looking back it helped stabilize the currency, financial markets, and turn things around. Even though Russia is still mired in a recession and growth probably won’t resume until 2017, there are now the first signs pointing to a recovery. A flexible ruble is helping offset the drop in oil prices, while inflation growth is slowly being tamed. Moody’s Investors Service in December increased its outlook on Russia.
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The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the regular five-yearly review of the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right (SDR). A key focus of the Board review was whether the Chinese renminbi (RMB) met the existing criteria to be included in the basket. The Board today decided that the RMB met all existing criteria and, effective October 1, 2016 the RMB is determined to be a freely usable currency and will be included in the SDR basket as a fifth currency, along with the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. Launching the new SDR basket on October 1, 2016 will provide sufficient lead time for the Fund, its members and other SDR users to adjust to these changes.
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the regular five-yearly review of the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right (SDR). A key focus of the Board review was whether the Chinese renminbi (RMB) met the existing criteria to be included in the basket. The Board today decided that the RMB met all existing criteria and, effective October 1, 2016 the RMB is determined to be a freely usable currency and will be included in the SDR basket as a fifth currency, along with the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. Launching the new SDR basket on October 1, 2016 will provide sufficient lead time for the Fund, its members and other SDR users to adjust to these changes.
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Brazil’s annual inflation exceeded 10 percent for the first time in 12 years as the government struggles to rein in a widening budget gap.
Brazil’s annual inflation exceeded 10 percent for the first time in 12 years as the government struggles to rein in a widening budget gap.
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Japan's household spending rose in August for the first time in three months and the availability of jobs improved to its best in more than two decades, which could temper concerns that the economy has fallen into a recession.
The 2.9 percent annual increase in household spending in August amply exceeded the median estimate for a 0.4 percent year-on-year rise and followed a 0.2 percent annual decline in July as more consumers bought cars.
Government data showed the jobs-applicants ratio rose to 1.23 in August, which is the highest since January 1992. The jobless rate was 3.4 percent in August, slightly more than the median estimate of 3.3 percent.
An unexpected decline in August industrial production earlier this week led some economists to say the economy may have contracted in July-September, which would put it in a technical recession after a contraction in April-June.
However, strong household spending data, which the government uses to calculate gross domestic product, has led some economists to become more optimistic.
The BOJ will hold a two-day meeting on Oct. 6-7, but many economists are focused on the following meeting on Oct. 30, where the central bank will recalculate its consumer price and gross domestic product forecasts.
Even if the economy avoids recession, the BOJ still has to navigate a difficult path for monetary policy.
Japan's household spending rose in August for the first time in three months and the availability of jobs improved to its best in more than two decades, which could temper concerns that the economy has fallen into a recession.
The 2.9 percent annual increase in household spending in August amply exceeded the median estimate for a 0.4 percent year-on-year rise and followed a 0.2 percent annual decline in July as more consumers bought cars.
Government data showed the jobs-applicants ratio rose to 1.23 in August, which is the highest since January 1992. The jobless rate was 3.4 percent in August, slightly more than the median estimate of 3.3 percent.
An unexpected decline in August industrial production earlier this week led some economists to say the economy may have contracted in July-September, which would put it in a technical recession after a contraction in April-June.
However, strong household spending data, which the government uses to calculate gross domestic product, has led some economists to become more optimistic.
The BOJ will hold a two-day meeting on Oct. 6-7, but many economists are focused on the following meeting on Oct. 30, where the central bank will recalculate its consumer price and gross domestic product forecasts.
Even if the economy avoids recession, the BOJ still has to navigate a difficult path for monetary policy.
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For investors around the world, 2015 is turning into a year to forget. Stocks, commodities and currency funds are all in the red, and even the measly gains in bonds are being wiped out by what little inflation there is in the global economy.
After three years in a virtuous cycle of rising share prices and unprecedented monetary easing, markets are now sinking as emerging economies from China to Brazil weaken and corporate profits slump. Analysts have cut their global-growth estimates for 2015 to 3 percent from 3.5 percent at the start of the year, and the turmoil has added pressure on central banks to prolong their stimulus programs, with traders scaling back forecasts for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase by year-end.
For investors around the world, 2015 is turning into a year to forget. Stocks, commodities and currency funds are all in the red, and even the measly gains in bonds are being wiped out by what little inflation there is in the global economy.
After three years in a virtuous cycle of rising share prices and unprecedented monetary easing, markets are now sinking as emerging economies from China to Brazil weaken and corporate profits slump. Analysts have cut their global-growth estimates for 2015 to 3 percent from 3.5 percent at the start of the year, and the turmoil has added pressure on central banks to prolong their stimulus programs, with traders scaling back forecasts for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase by year-end.
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Con l’incrocio registrato lunedì sul Nasdaq, tutti gli indici azionari statunitensi hanno realizzato la cosiddetta “croce della morte”.
Il nome evoca una configurazione chiaramente ribassista e tira in ballo l'analisi tecnica. La “croce della morte” si verifica quando la media mobile a 50 sedute di un indice buca al ribasso la media a 200 giorni: i due livelli temporali non sono casuali e fotografano un orizzonte di medio termine per gli investimenti (50 sedute) con un orizzonte di lungo termine (200 sedute).
Probabilmente si tratta dell'indicatore al mondo più monitorato anche dai non appassionati dall'analisi tecnica, vista la semplicità del funzionamento. Le medie registrano la tendenza depurandola dalle oscillazioni giornaliere e il fatto che avvenga questo incrocio al ribasso significa che il tono di fondo del mercato azionario non è positivo.
Il segnale è apparso lo scorso 11 agosto sull'indice Dow Jones e sullo S&P 500 e da allora la performance dei due indici più famosi a Wall Street è negativa di oltre il 5%. È la tredicesima volta dal 1979 che tutte e tre gli indici virano al ribasso, secondo questo indicatore, e l'ultima volta questo fenomeno si era verificato nell'agosto del 2011.
Allora, dopo una fase di turbolenza, le quotazioni tornarono decisamente al rialzo e l'auspicio degli investitori è che anche questa volta la storia si ripeta nello stesso modo. Sulla base delle indicazioni statistiche, l'effetto della “croce della morte” si produce soprattutto nel breve periodo, con un orizzonte di circa un mese o poco più.
E fino a oggi le indicazioni date da S&P 500 e Dow Jones si sono mosse in linea con questa previsione. Tre mesi dopo che è scattato il segnale ben nove volte su dodici il bilancio dell'S&P 500 è tornato positivo. Non resta che attendere.
Con l’incrocio registrato lunedì sul Nasdaq, tutti gli indici azionari statunitensi hanno realizzato la cosiddetta “croce della morte”.
Il nome evoca una configurazione chiaramente ribassista e tira in ballo l'analisi tecnica. La “croce della morte” si verifica quando la media mobile a 50 sedute di un indice buca al ribasso la media a 200 giorni: i due livelli temporali non sono casuali e fotografano un orizzonte di medio termine per gli investimenti (50 sedute) con un orizzonte di lungo termine (200 sedute).
Probabilmente si tratta dell'indicatore al mondo più monitorato anche dai non appassionati dall'analisi tecnica, vista la semplicità del funzionamento. Le medie registrano la tendenza depurandola dalle oscillazioni giornaliere e il fatto che avvenga questo incrocio al ribasso significa che il tono di fondo del mercato azionario non è positivo.
Il segnale è apparso lo scorso 11 agosto sull'indice Dow Jones e sullo S&P 500 e da allora la performance dei due indici più famosi a Wall Street è negativa di oltre il 5%. È la tredicesima volta dal 1979 che tutte e tre gli indici virano al ribasso, secondo questo indicatore, e l'ultima volta questo fenomeno si era verificato nell'agosto del 2011.
Allora, dopo una fase di turbolenza, le quotazioni tornarono decisamente al rialzo e l'auspicio degli investitori è che anche questa volta la storia si ripeta nello stesso modo. Sulla base delle indicazioni statistiche, l'effetto della “croce della morte” si produce soprattutto nel breve periodo, con un orizzonte di circa un mese o poco più.
E fino a oggi le indicazioni date da S&P 500 e Dow Jones si sono mosse in linea con questa previsione. Tre mesi dopo che è scattato il segnale ben nove volte su dodici il bilancio dell'S&P 500 è tornato positivo. Non resta che attendere.
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Japan’s industrial output unexpectedly fell, raising concern that the economy may have fallen back into its second recession since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took government. Production dropped 0.5 in August from July, when it slid 0.8 percent, the trade ministry said on Wednesday. Economists had projected a 1 percent gain while the government had estimated a 2.8 percent expansion. Also on Wednesday, the METI said that on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis retail sales were flat in August versus expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent and down from 1.4 percent a month earlier.
Japan’s industrial output unexpectedly fell, raising concern that the economy may have fallen back into its second recession since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took government. Production dropped 0.5 in August from July, when it slid 0.8 percent, the trade ministry said on Wednesday. Economists had projected a 1 percent gain while the government had estimated a 2.8 percent expansion. Also on Wednesday, the METI said that on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis retail sales were flat in August versus expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent and down from 1.4 percent a month earlier.
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India’s central bank lowered interest rates more than expected to bolster the economy as China’s slowdown threatens global growth and a commodity rout contains inflation.
Rajan is looking to keep inflation within 6 percent by January, 5 percent a year later and near 4 percent by early 2018 (consumer-price gains slowed to 3.66 percent in August).
The benchmark stock index, which has fallen about 3 percent over the past month, erased the day’s losses after the rate decision. The rupee pared its drop and the yield on the 10-year sovereign bond plunged to a July 2013 low of 7.56 percent in Mumbai.
The RBI forecast gross-value added growth at 7.4 percent in the year through March 2016, and 7.8 percent in the following 12 months.
India’s central bank lowered interest rates more than expected to bolster the economy as China’s slowdown threatens global growth and a commodity rout contains inflation.
Rajan is looking to keep inflation within 6 percent by January, 5 percent a year later and near 4 percent by early 2018 (consumer-price gains slowed to 3.66 percent in August).
The benchmark stock index, which has fallen about 3 percent over the past month, erased the day’s losses after the rate decision. The rupee pared its drop and the yield on the 10-year sovereign bond plunged to a July 2013 low of 7.56 percent in Mumbai.
The RBI forecast gross-value added growth at 7.4 percent in the year through March 2016, and 7.8 percent in the following 12 months.
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