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The deepening recessions in Brazil and Russia have now dealt such a blow to faith in the Bric hypothesis that, late last year, even Goldman closed its Bric fund after assets dwindled to $100m, from a peak of more than $800m at the end of 2010. In its place, emerging market fund managers appear to have stumbled on its potential replacement — the Ticks, with tech-heavy Taiwan and (South) Korea elbowing aside commodity-centric Brazil and Russia. Aside from a catchy acronym, the realignment tells us much about the changing nature of emerging markets — and the world in general — with services, particularly technology, to the fore and trade in physical goods, especially commodities in retreat.
The deepening recessions in Brazil and Russia have now dealt such a blow to faith in the Bric hypothesis that, late last year, even Goldman closed its Bric fund after assets dwindled to $100m, from a peak of more than $800m at the end of 2010. In its place, emerging market fund managers appear to have stumbled on its potential replacement — the Ticks, with tech-heavy Taiwan and (South) Korea elbowing aside commodity-centric Brazil and Russia. Aside from a catchy acronym, the realignment tells us much about the changing nature of emerging markets — and the world in general — with services, particularly technology, to the fore and trade in physical goods, especially commodities in retreat.
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Expectations for the first hike in interest rates from the Bank of England have receded to the fourth quarter. Economists assigned only a 55 percent probability of a move by end-year. There is a more confident 65 percent chance of an increase by the end of March 2017 and a solid 75 percent likelihood by the middle of next year.
in the meanwhile June 23 is starting to look like the preferred date for Prime Minister David Cameron’s planned referendum on the U.K.’s continued membership in the European Union (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/u-k-referendum-may-default-to-june-23-to-avoid-soccer-matches).
Expectations for the first hike in interest rates from the Bank of England have receded to the fourth quarter. Economists assigned only a 55 percent probability of a move by end-year. There is a more confident 65 percent chance of an increase by the end of March 2017 and a solid 75 percent likelihood by the middle of next year.
in the meanwhile June 23 is starting to look like the preferred date for Prime Minister David Cameron’s planned referendum on the U.K.’s continued membership in the European Union (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/u-k-referendum-may-default-to-june-23-to-avoid-soccer-matches).
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Il valore di una azione Petrobas, produttrice di petrolio a controllo pubblico, coinvolta nello scandalo tangenti e con 70% del debito denominato in dollari, si avvicina a 1 dollaro, -90% rispetto al picco del 2008
Il valore di una azione Petrobas, produttrice di petrolio a controllo pubblico, coinvolta nello scandalo tangenti e con 70% del debito denominato in dollari, si avvicina a 1 dollaro, -90% rispetto al picco del 2008
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Europe has a long-standing reliance on Russia’s gas supply and is struggling to cope with the throngs of migrants bleeding into its borders from Syria. With Syrian peace talks planned to start Jan. 29 -- and Russia a key player at that negotiating table -- the Ukraine crisis is no longer the only consideration for policy makers.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble wrote in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper Monday that the EU should forge closer ties with Russia to help resolve the civil war in Syria and reduce tension in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
Secretary of State John Kerry used Davos, Switzerland, as a high-profile platform to raise the prospect that the U.S. may consider lifting sanctions later this year, assuming the terms of the so-called Minsk accord are implemented. Since then, there has been a flurry of voices echoing that sentiment.
The worsening of crises from Syria to Libya are forcing the international community to reconsider sanctions slapped on President Vladimir Putin’s government over Ukraine as a way of getting a key diplomatic power broker on board. Of late, a flurry of senior officials from the U.S. and the European Union have suggested a thaw is within reach.
Europe has a long-standing reliance on Russia’s gas supply and is struggling to cope with the throngs of migrants bleeding into its borders from Syria. With Syrian peace talks planned to start Jan. 29 -- and Russia a key player at that negotiating table -- the Ukraine crisis is no longer the only consideration for policy makers.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble wrote in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper Monday that the EU should forge closer ties with Russia to help resolve the civil war in Syria and reduce tension in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
Secretary of State John Kerry used Davos, Switzerland, as a high-profile platform to raise the prospect that the U.S. may consider lifting sanctions later this year, assuming the terms of the so-called Minsk accord are implemented. Since then, there has been a flurry of voices echoing that sentiment.
The worsening of crises from Syria to Libya are forcing the international community to reconsider sanctions slapped on President Vladimir Putin’s government over Ukraine as a way of getting a key diplomatic power broker on board. Of late, a flurry of senior officials from the U.S. and the European Union have suggested a thaw is within reach.
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Russia, which relies on oil and natural gas for almost half its fiscal revenue, ran a budget deficit of 2.6 percent in 2015, the highest in five years
This year's budget was initially planned around oil averaging $50 a barrel and a deficit of 3 percent of gross domestic product. Belt-tightening measures totaling 1.5 trillion rubles ($18.9 billion) are needed to avoid a shortfall of over 6 percent of output this year.
In April 2001 oil and gas generated some 30 percent of federal budget revenues. In 2015, the figure reached 44 percent,.Greater dependence on oil and gas means Russia’s GDP is even more linked to the crude-price dynamics. With the current oil rout, the country’s economy risks shrinking for a second year. It declined 3.7 percent in 2015, the deepest contraction since 2009, and may shrink 0.5 percent this year.
Russia, which relies on oil and natural gas for almost half its fiscal revenue, ran a budget deficit of 2.6 percent in 2015, the highest in five years
This year's budget was initially planned around oil averaging $50 a barrel and a deficit of 3 percent of gross domestic product. Belt-tightening measures totaling 1.5 trillion rubles ($18.9 billion) are needed to avoid a shortfall of over 6 percent of output this year.
In April 2001 oil and gas generated some 30 percent of federal budget revenues. In 2015, the figure reached 44 percent,.Greater dependence on oil and gas means Russia’s GDP is even more linked to the crude-price dynamics. With the current oil rout, the country’s economy risks shrinking for a second year. It declined 3.7 percent in 2015, the deepest contraction since 2009, and may shrink 0.5 percent this year.
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Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015, is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017. The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO), especially in emerging market and developing economies.
Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015, is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017. The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO), especially in emerging market and developing economies.
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The richest 1 percent is now wealthier than the rest of humanity combined, according to Oxfam, which called on governments to intensify efforts to reduce such inequality. In a report published on the eve of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, the anti-poverty charity cited data from Credit Suisse Group AG in declaring the most affluent controlled most of the world’s wealth in 2015. That’s a year earlier than it had anticipated. Oxfam also calculated that 62 individuals had the same wealth as 3.5 billion people, the bottom half of the global population, compared with 388 individuals five years earlier. The wealth of the most affluent rose 44 percent since 2010 to $1.76 trillion, while the wealth of the bottom half fell 41 percent or just over $1 trillion.
The richest 1 percent is now wealthier than the rest of humanity combined, according to Oxfam, which called on governments to intensify efforts to reduce such inequality. In a report published on the eve of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, the anti-poverty charity cited data from Credit Suisse Group AG in declaring the most affluent controlled most of the world’s wealth in 2015. That’s a year earlier than it had anticipated. Oxfam also calculated that 62 individuals had the same wealth as 3.5 billion people, the bottom half of the global population, compared with 388 individuals five years earlier. The wealth of the most affluent rose 44 percent since 2010 to $1.76 trillion, while the wealth of the bottom half fell 41 percent or just over $1 trillion.
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Lo Shanghai composite ha perso il 21% dal massimo relativo di dicembre, stamani ha testato e poi chiuso al di sotto del minimo relativo alla fase di rintracciamento del mercato di luglio e agosto. L'indice è ora al livello di dicembre 2014.
Lo Shanghai composite ha perso il 21% dal massimo relativo di dicembre, stamani ha testato e poi chiuso al di sotto del minimo relativo alla fase di rintracciamento del mercato di luglio e agosto. L'indice è ora al livello di dicembre 2014.
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Una ragione è l'attrazione esercitata dal previsto irrigidimento della politica monetaria statunitense. Un'altra ragione è l'impatto del calo dei prezzi delle materie prime su una serie di economie emergenti, fra cui Russia, Brasile e Sudafrica. Un altro fattore ancora è l'instabilità geopolitica, in particolare in Medio Oriente. Gli scandali di corruzione tendono a emergere quando la marea economica si ritira: niente di strano, quindi, che la leadership brasiliana sia invischiata in un grosso scandalo che si allarga sempre più. Il presidente cinese Xi Jinping sta cercando di fare pulizia, ma una lotta alla corruzione di questa portata basta da sola a danneggiare la fiducia. Ma la ragione più importante di tutte è la presa di coscienza del deteriorarsi della performance economica nei Paesi emergenti, in termini congiunturali e –più importante ancora – in termini strutturali. Dei cinque Brics (Brasile, Russia, India, Cina e Sudafrica), solo l'India sta ripartendo.
Una ragione è l'attrazione esercitata dal previsto irrigidimento della politica monetaria statunitense. Un'altra ragione è l'impatto del calo dei prezzi delle materie prime su una serie di economie emergenti, fra cui Russia, Brasile e Sudafrica. Un altro fattore ancora è l'instabilità geopolitica, in particolare in Medio Oriente. Gli scandali di corruzione tendono a emergere quando la marea economica si ritira: niente di strano, quindi, che la leadership brasiliana sia invischiata in un grosso scandalo che si allarga sempre più. Il presidente cinese Xi Jinping sta cercando di fare pulizia, ma una lotta alla corruzione di questa portata basta da sola a danneggiare la fiducia. Ma la ragione più importante di tutte è la presa di coscienza del deteriorarsi della performance economica nei Paesi emergenti, in termini congiunturali e –più importante ancora – in termini strutturali. Dei cinque Brics (Brasile, Russia, India, Cina e Sudafrica), solo l'India sta ripartendo.
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Regno Unito: rivista al ribasso la crescita del PIL nel terzo trimestre .
Il PIL britannico è cresciuto dello 0,4% congiunturale sul trimestre precedente, segnando la dinamica più fiacca dal 2012, opo essere salito dello 0,5% nel secondo. La crescita è stata rivista al ribasso rispetto alla stima precedente di un decimo percentuale nel terzo trimestre e di due decimi nel secondo. Ancora robusta la domanda interna (+0,9% i consumi), mentre le esportazioni nette hanno sottratto 1 punto percentuale alla crescita; a causa dell'apprezzamento della sterlina e del rallentamento della domanda globale l'export è sceso dello 0,3% mentre l'import è cresciuto del 2,7%.
Regno Unito: rivista al ribasso la crescita del PIL nel terzo trimestre .
Il PIL britannico è cresciuto dello 0,4% congiunturale sul trimestre precedente, segnando la dinamica più fiacca dal 2012, opo essere salito dello 0,5% nel secondo. La crescita è stata rivista al ribasso rispetto alla stima precedente di un decimo percentuale nel terzo trimestre e di due decimi nel secondo. Ancora robusta la domanda interna (+0,9% i consumi), mentre le esportazioni nette hanno sottratto 1 punto percentuale alla crescita; a causa dell'apprezzamento della sterlina e del rallentamento della domanda globale l'export è sceso dello 0,3% mentre l'import è cresciuto del 2,7%.
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